For any decent strategist, blackjack is a game of situational decisions. One of these decisions, which most veterans will tell you never to make, is splitting 10s – especially when facing a 5 or 6 from the dealer.
However, casino gambling expert Mark Pilarski says there are actually a “few exceptions” to that rule.
Blackjack players are taught early on to split aces and 8s. But your faithful gambling columnist, always the skeptic, wonders: why? Before we get into specifics, it's only fair to offer a primer. In blackjack basic strategy, the rules for playing a pair of aces or eights is simple and straightforward. Basic blackjack strategy states that you should always split these pairs. There is a prevailing reason for splitting each of them. There are a few situations in Blackjack when it always makes sense to split, no matter what card the dealer is showing. For example, you should always split when you get a pair of aces. Splitting gives you a much better chance to get a strong hand.
Pilarski has a great deal of experience in the field of blackjack. He spent 18 years working for 7 different casinos. These days, however, Pilarski has left the commercial casino industry behind, instead working as a journalist. He has his own nationally syndicated column called Deal Me In, writes periodicals for numerous gaming magazines and sells his own award-winning series of Audio-Books called “Hooked on Winning”.
Placing a double down bet after splitting a hand reduces the house edge by 0.13%. Blackjack strategy suggests if the game allows a double down after splitting, then we should split a pair of Deuces, Threes and Sevens so long as the dealer’s face card is a Deuce, Three, Four, Five, Six or Seven. Online blackjack vs land based 21. No, this is wrong. You TOTALLY want to split 8s and aces when the dealer has 4-6. You are basically a favorite ONLY if you split: AA against Dealer 4: Stand: -0.20084 Hit: +0.12929 Split: +0.58230 AA against Dealer 5: Stand: -0.15875 Hit: +0.16083 Split: +0.63371.
Continue reading to learn more about why Pilarski considers there are exceptions to this Golden Rule of Blackjack.
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Odds Of Winning When Splitting 10s – Should You Split?
Last week, Mark Pilarski tackled a tough subject when one of his readers, Herb C., asked the following question:
“I am aware that you never – ever – ever split 10s against a dealer’s 5 or 6. However, I have been tempted to do so when no one else is at the Blackjack table. My question is what is the percentage odds of winning (or losing) by doing so?”
Mark first addressed the blackjack strategy of John Scarne, who published ‘Scarne on Cards’ in 1949. Scarne felt that splitting 10s was a good strategy, but that was 65 years ago, before computers were able to analyze hand statistics. In 1962, Edward Thorpe used an IBM 704 to analyze blackjack hands, and when he published his results in ‘Beat the Dealer’, the theory of splitting 10s was abolished.
“Since then,” wrote Mark, “I can’t think of any blackjack authors that recommend splitting 10s in most, if not all, cases.” He said that he ran his own 20-million hand simulation on a program called BJ Trainer. The results “clearly favored leaving those 10s unaided versus splitting them, even against a 5 or a 6.” Pilarski reasoned, “I favor taking computer results over advice written in 1949 every time.”
Tips For Splitting 10s In Blackjack – The Exceptions
The blackjack strategist went on to describe a few very rare occasions when he himself felt it was in his best interest to split 10s in a blackjack game. The first is during a game of Face-Up 21, a blackjack variant in which both of the dealer’s cards are exposed.
- Mark said splitting 10s is a good strategy so long as the dealer’s confirmed total is “13, 14, 15 or 16.”
- Pilarski also noted that, for an experienced card counter, it is a good idea to split 10s against a dealer’s 6 if the count favors a lot of high cards left in the deck, such as a count of 6 or above.
Mark said that there is only “one other scenario where splitting 10s can be the better play than standing.” He described a situation which he himself experienced. It was the final hand of a blackjack tournament, and Pilarski had been dealt a 20. Although he knew the most probable way to win the hand was to stand, doing so “wouldn’t have won enough money to overtake” the dealer. So he chose to split the 10s and got lucky, winning enough chips to move on to the next round of the blackjack tournament.
Odds Of Winning Or Losing
As for Herb C’s original question, pertaining to the “percentage odds of winning or losing”, Mark said, “the statistical data on how often you will win when you split a pair of 10s against a dealer showing a 6 is 64% of the time.” Thus the expected profit would be just $56 for every $100 wagered on such a hand.
Mark then examined the odds of “standing pat on your 20”. The blackjack analyst said that, “by standing, you will win around 85 percent of the time, and will make about $14 more per $100 wagered than splitting.”
In conclusion, Mark Pilarski recommended that a blackjack player “stand on your 20” in all situations, outside of those “few exceptions” listed above.
“Your fair share of being dealt a 20 is approximately 9.2% of the time, and I just don’t want you putting that stellar hand in unwarranted jeopardy”, Pilarski wrote.
Split 10s And Win!
The Golden Rule is still to never split 10s when playing blackjack. However, as you’ve seen, there are a few very specific exceptions that could make splitting a sound choice.
Do You Always Split 8's In Blackjack
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Should You Split 10s In Blackjack
When surrendering is offered, is it better than splitting 8s?
Do You Split 8's In Blackjack
If so, what about when the dealer is showing a Ten?Thanks.
Double-deck, hit soft 17: Surrender vs A if allowed, else split
Any decks, European no-hole card rule: Hit vs 10 or A (or presumably surrender if offered, although this is rare on these games)
The expected value are:
Stand -0.536853
Hit -0.535361
Split -0.486276 with No Double After Split allowed
Split -0.475385 when Double After Split allowed
Surrender -0.500 with no variation
Splitting is the best option against a 10 (although it is not much better than surrender).
In the case of pairs of 8's against an Ace it depends on whether the dealer hits a soft 17. If he does hit a soft 17 then the preferred choice is to surrender. If he stands the preferred choice is to split.
I have never actually seen surrender. It's not a very popular rule. I figure it slows the game down, and most players have a pretty good idea when they should use it. They may not know it perfectly, but they rarely make a really stupid mistake. It's a double negative for the casino.